WAIT, SO GEN Z BELIEVES NOW?
There have been some interesting developments in the "Religious America Is in Steep Decline" story.
First, researchers from Cornell, Harvard, and NYU published a 35-page paper titled, "Switch to Web-Based Surveys During COVID-19 Pandemic Left Out the Most Religious, Creating a False Impression of Rapid Religious Decline."
Yes, if you feel like you just read the paper by reading that amazingly long paper title, you're basically right.
The gold standard General Social Survey (GSS) switched to online rather than face-to-face interviews and the response rate plunged to 17%. Parallel analyses of GSS panel data demonstrate that this mode switch introduced substantial nonresponse bias. Illustratively, biblical literalism was almost 50% higher among those who declined to participate (36%) than those who participated in the online survey (25%)*. Rather than declining, intense religion persisted if not rose over time among those willing to participate in a push-to-web survey.
Wait…what? "Intense religion"...rose??
The apparent decline was simply a result of disillusioned, distrusting, disinformed, disadvantaged, and disconnected people being much less likely to agree to participate. Intense religion and other social phenomena are underrepresented and thereby underestimated in online surveys with substantial nonresponse, including those using population sampling methods. The trend in survey research toward these types of surveys could be expected to give a false impression of secularization and other social change going forward…
It's amazing how adjustments in polling methodology can lead to dramatically different convictions about human thought and behavior.
Whew, so we've all been worried about nothing then?
No. I hardly think one academic paper about pandemic-era GSS polling undoes all the other longitudinal analyses performed by credible researchers.
Even Schnabel, Bock, and Hout's multi-decade view of "intense religion" shows that, while yes the pandemic polling methods create a false plunge, there were still mild downward trends in certainty about the Bible and frequency of church attendance.
That said, one of the most notable trends is a long-term, upward shift in frequent prayer.
What does it mean?
(Remember back in 2010 when asking "What does it mean?" made us all say "Double rainbow all the way!" Rest in peace Paul "Yosemitebear" Vasquez.)
It means that research is tricky and people are complicated.
OK but what about Gen Z?
Right…back to Gen Z.
Ryan Burge has some unexpected insights at his great Substack in a piece called "The Nones Have Hit a Ceiling."
He provides this helpful graph, showing, as he puts it, that "the share of non-religious Americans has stopped rising in any meaningful way."
What does this have to do with Gen Z?
Burge subsequently shows, in a year-over-year polling graph, that Gen Z respondents report the lowest level of religious non-affiliation they've shown in three years.
He also shows how similar they are to other generations in religious beliefs.
(I'd love to show all these graphs here, but I think it's better form to send you to his "Graphs About Religion" article, which I linked above.)
How to interpret all of this?
Burge writes:
I think the easiest explanation is that a lot of marginally attached people switched to “no religion” on surveys over the last decade or two. Eventually, there weren’t that many marginally attached folks anymore. All you had left were the very committed religious people who likely won’t become nones for any reason. The loose top soil has been scooped off and hauled away, leaving nothing but hard bedrock underneath.
But generational replacement is an impossible trend to stop. Older people will not live forever. Instead, they will be leaving this Earth and their replacements will be a whole lot of members of Gen Z who tend to be less religious than their grandparents. Although, the generational gap between those groups may be smaller now than many initially thought.
Where to go from here
Whether the secularization trend is less than we thought, as these researchers suggest, or somehow proves more severe, what to do remains the same:
Know your audience.
Create enchanting experiences.
You have to do the former to succeed with the latter.
Studying data about your customers, donors, and volunteers is not the same as knowing your customers, donors, and volunteers.
You need to get to know them. As whole people.
In fact, you can start knowing them today or this week.
It's as simple as calling random general donors until you've talked to a dozen or so.
After thanking them, tell them you would love to hear about their experiences with your organization as well as with others. Ask them open-ended but meaningful questions like:
Tell me about another organization you get excited about donating to. What is it about that opportunity that makes you feel this way?
If our organization wanted to give you a similarly wonderful experience, what would it look like?
What's one bit of advice you have for me about how our organization might best convince people like you to give to our work?
Of course, you'll want to be a highly engaged listener, but you know that already. I've provided a few more interviewing tips below my signature.
After these interviews, you'll have a few good insights about what your audience members love and a few early hypotheses about how to provide remarkable experiences for them.
Now you're ready to start imagining how to develop, launch, and scale the profound experiences that will reenchant them with your brand.
In fact, I'd love for you to bring your early insights and experience hypotheses to Wonder Camp, Oct 16-17, in Carefree, AZ.
At Wonder Camp, we help you—and awesome people from other organizations like yours—do the deep, bold creative work that will turn your insights into an experience-based growth strategy for your organization. It's so great.
Allen
allen@sublimity.co
571.283.8283
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Tips from SUBLIMITY's lead interviewer Paige Walthall:
Be genuinely interested in knowing about their perspective. Folks can tell the difference between what feels like a genuine conversation and a series of questions in a survey.
Don't be afraid to ask follow-up questions. Time permitting, probing a little deeper with questions like, "Why do you think you felt that way?" or "Tell me a little more about how you came to that decision?" will yield more insights into how your donors operate. Follow-up questions are especially important if the interview happens over the phone vs. video call or in person.
Always say thank you for being a donor and for the generosity of their time during your conversation. A sincere thank-you goes a long way.
Listen more than you speak. It's a good rule of thumb in life but especially in interviews where you're seeking insights from someone you've never met before.
Various & Sundry:
Next SUBLIMITY Newsletter: As previewed at CLA Outcomes 2024, we will kick off a twelve-part series of audience experience types for your use in imagining fresh opportunities for your customers, members, donors, volunteers, subscribers and other constituents.
Credit Where Due 1: I think I heard about the Cornell et al report from Christianity Today, but I've been unable to find an article that references the report. If I've failed to give rightful credit, my apologies.
Credit Where Due 2: It was Natan Ehrenreich's excellent "The Fall of the Nones?" piece that led me to Ryan Burge's Substack.
